The Indianapolis Colts are looking to avoid a dreaded 0-3 start to the season.
Hosting the Chicago Bears at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 3, the Colts essentially have their backs against the wall.
Their chances of making a run for the playoffs have already decreased dramatically with an 0-2 start. Since 1990, only 11.5% of 0-2 teams have made the playoffs, according to Sports Illustrated.
The odds of doing so after an 0-3 start are nearly impossible. Since 1990, only four teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 (2.5%), per Sports Illustrated.
With a massive matchup coming up, here are three things to watch for as the Colts host the Bears.
Colts vs. Bears preview: What to watch for
Impact from Josh Downs’ return to the lineup
Barring a setback in Friday’s practice, Downs is set to make his season debut on Sunday. He confirmed himself to the media earlier this week, “That is the plan, God willing. Get through the week healthy and then get my first game” Downs said.
When taking a deeper look into Anthony Richardson’s target splits, per Next Gen Stats, it's easy tosee that he has missed having Downs in the lineup.
Wide: 13-of-24 208 Yards (8.7 YPA) Two TDs, One INT, 93.8 Rating
Tight: 3-of-3 88 Yards (29.3 YPA) One TD, 158.3 Rating
Slot: 6-of-17 79 Yards (4.6 YPA) Two INTs, 11.3 Rating
Backfield: 4-of-6 41 Yards (6.8 YPA) 86.1 Rating
It’s safe to say that Downs will significantly improve Richardson's slot target splits with him on the field. The pair flashed their chemistry in 2023 so the hope is that they will continue that for their first go at it this season.
Does the defense put pressure on Caleb Williams?
Outside of not allowing the Bears to get their ground game going, the one thing the Indy defense can’t let happen is Caleb Williams getting comfortable in the pocket and carve up their secondary. That is an area the Chicago offense has also struggled to establish through the first two weeks of the season.
They are tied for the most sacks allowed (nine) in the NFL. Per Next Gen Stats, the Bears offensive line surrendered 23 pressures on 48 dropbacks (47.9%), including 11 quick pressures, both of which were the most across the league in Week 2.
In Week 2 against the Texans, Williams was blitzed on 41.7% of his dropbacks (20 times), completing just 3-of-12 passes for 15 yards and an interception. Williams was sacked on five blitzed dropbacks (7 total sacks). He completed -21.0% of passes under expected against the blitz; when not blitzed, he completed 20-of-25 passes for 159 yards and an interception (+4.6% CPOE).
The question is, will Gus Bradley elect to lean into the blitz on Sunday? Something his defense has been more successful at so far this season. Per Next Gen Stats, the Colts have the fourth-highest blitz rate in the league (33.9%), generating pressure on 42.1% of blitzes.
Indianapolis has struggled to generate pressure when not blitzing. Their 27.0% pressure rate with four or fewer pass rushers ranks 20th in the league through two weeks.
Bradley’s defense will be without DeForest Buckner and likely Laiatu Latu, who hasn’t practiced this week, so Bradley will need to come up with creative ways to get consistent pressure on the rookie quarterback and not let him have his breakout game this season.
A clean game from Anthony Richardson and his pass catchers
The Week 2 loss was a poor display for Richardson and his pass catchers. Richardson struggled reading Green Bay’s defense, making pre-determined decisions, and putting too much velocity on his short-to-intermediate passes. He also didn’t get much help from his receivers, who had a 15% drop rate, the highest for all NFL quarterbacks in Week 2.
The positive was that despite a rough afternoon, Richardson and company put together a 12–play, 65-yard scoring drive late in the fourth quarter to give Indianapolis a chance at a late comeback.
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) September 16, 2024It was a rough day for Anthony Richardson and his pass catchers but it was nice to see him put together a 12-play 65-yard drive towards the end of the game.
AR was 6/10 55 Yards TD and picked up a 4th-and-11 with his legs. pic.twitter.com/4yWV7kpBZc
Richardson has thrown at least one interception in both games this season, which has cost his team points. He will have to do a better job at making sure Chicago doesn’t have any opportunities to get their hands on the ball. Something they have thrived at over the last two seasons.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Bears defense has forced 22 interceptions over the past two seasons (tied for most in the NFL). As I mentioned, having Downs back in the lineup should help Richardson but he also needs Michael Pittman Jr. and Adonai Mitchell to make a bigger impact than they have thus far.
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